I want to take a moment to lay something out here. I think it’s important to identify it very unambiguously.
In summary: I believe it is very likely that martial law will be widely implemented in the US, at least in all major cities and heavily liberal areas, in late October right before the 2026 election – if not much sooner, specifically to prevent fair midterm elections. Our very system of government is at extreme risk.
This prediction and my associated recommendations will sound alarmist, but although I desperately wish it to be wrong, I am increasingly sure that it’s likely. So bear with me, and please don’t click away without considering it carefully.
For the last 18 months, Trump and (since the inauguration) various members of his administration have been making statements fairly regularly that if he gets his way, no more elections would be necessary. The press, at least the portion that is sympathetic to Trump, have laughed it off, but the sheer number of repeated comments about this topic indicates that it wasn’t a flippant idea. Just in the last few days, the President made such a statement in a formal interview, that we should not have a midterm election because his policies are so popular (which is ludicrous, since polling shows approval in the mid to low 30s).
https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/trump-we-shouldnt-even-have-an-election/
https://time.com/7346834/trump-canceling-midterm-elections-joking-white-house
Many members of his administration have clearly expressed the desire to implement very strict controls against viewpoints that disagree with them.
A sizable handful of prominent right-wing bloggers and influencers are saying that we need to change the system to eliminate opposition and other religious viewpoints. It doesn’t matter to them that other non-evangelical Christians disagree with them – the majority of believers in the US, in fact. They are openly calling for a very strict return to a certain very conservative, almost extremist, specific form of Christianity. And some people in the administration are echoing those ideas.
Many comments have been made by Trump and others in his top level administration about a third term, or never leaving office. Trump increasingly is using imperial language and increasingly blatantly ignores laws that are inconvenient for his policy goals. He regularly reposts images of himself as a king. He is no longer acting accountable to the Constitution or laws.
More to the point with regard to banning opposition, many comments have been made during press conferences by Trump, Vance, Noem, and others calling fairly routine protests – even peaceful protests – as terrorist and illegal. This is happening more and more, sometimes multiple times per day in the last few weeks as anti-ICE sentiment increases and is expressed.
The President and Defense Secretary Hegseth have called for making disagreement with the administration and encouraging military officers to uphold the Constitution to be traitorous and equivalent to sedition.
https://www.wtae.com/article/trump-arrest-trial-lawmakers-sedition/69501097
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/12/us/trump-news
The President called for taking away American citizenship from people who were naturalized but have expressed anti-administration views. He has said this many times before and continues to press in that direction.
https://time.com/7344931/trump-threatens-to-denaturalize-us-citizens
Nothing has been done by the administration about the multitude of arrests and physical brutalization of American citizens by ICE. ICE has been given free and unfettered permission to terrorize the nation. Following the fatal shooting of a probably-innocent woman by an ICE agent this week, the FBI locked down all evidence and spirited the shooter and his family into hiding, refusing to cooperate with local officials to investigate. ICE officials has repeatedly prevented multiple members of Congress from fulfilling their legally-required duties of oversight of detention facilities. Yet stories continue to pour out of the brutality taking place daily, on the streets and inside the detention camps. In other words, ICE are protecting their people against valid claims of brutality and violence.
So it’s entirely understandable that good-hearted people are protesting the violence and injustice that is taking place, and are taking entirely legal steps to stop the abuses and protect their neighbors and communities. But the response by the administration is to accuse these people and communities and even entire states of terrorism, and using this as an excuse to send more and more federal troops – who commit more atrocities and thus lead to more protests.
In other words, we are watching a very fast spiral into authoritarian control.
And I don’t think it’s entirely unplanned.
In fact, I increasingly believe – although I have no proof – that this is a very intentional tactic by certain authoritarian-minded members of the administration to cause sufficient outrage and mass protests, that the administration can make a case for imposing martial law across states where the opposition is centered. And I am not alone in this – even some members of Congress have said the same.
Naturally this would mean that fair elections are impossible in those states, and the only people that will be able to vote – the only ones that feel safe going to vote if they are allowed – are the ones in districts where the overwhelming balance of political sentiment is Republican.
In short, this will be a blatant but effective means of rigging the election and ensuring Republican wins across blue states. (If you believe Republicans are the best choice, that’s fine, although I disagree with you. However, destroying the integrity of our elections to guarantee your preferred party wins makes your party choice meaningless, as it destroys our entire system.)
The reason I don’t think this lockdown will happen before October is because those in power won’t want the courts to have time to reverse it. This tactic only works if it disrupts or prevents the election. So they will hold off, let the disruptions and protests spread wider and become more intense, and be able to say “See how patient we are? But we need to guarantee safe and fair elections, so we HAVE to lock down now.” To their followers it will be eminently logical. But it will be an anti-democratic action nonetheless. And it won’t just hurt the election – it will permanently destroy the foundations of our political system.
But it’s entirely possible it will happen much sooner – just a few days ago the President directly threatened to implement the Insurrection Act to shut down legal and peaceful protests in Minnesota. (You may be hearing from your news sources that the protests are violent. Footage that I have seen, however, consistently shows that these protests are completely peaceful until the ICE and DHS forces start firing tear gas and using batons on people who are simply standing still and not doing anything illegal. In other words, the administration is responsible for the violence.)
This whole thing may sound extreme and unlikely, and I would agree if I were only getting my news from sources like Fox News and NewsMax and other administration-friendly news outlets. But I’m watching a wider set of formal public sources, and a lot of private reporting and video on places like Twitter and Threads and Bluesky, and most of those sources are backing up their assertions with verifiable video and links for stories that the right-leaning media is carefully avoiding. I’ve seen hundreds of comments by Trump and Vance and Noem and others, both video and social media posts, that demonstrate these things.
I will also point out that this exact tactic of stirring up dissent, then using that dissent to seize power to prevent themselves from losing the election, is well-established and has been done by strongmen around the world in numerous nations as long as there have been nation-states with elections. I’m not describing anything unusual in the world. I just be never thought it could happen in America.
So if you don’t believe me, let’s talk. I can share with you a flood of information backing up what I’m saying here. Or of course you can go looking for yourself.
I honestly don’t see any way to avoid this outcome. I think we are past the tipping point. Protests will only make it more likely. I doubt voting will be able to fix it. I doubt enough members of the military will resist to prevent it; any who resist will be thrown in the brig immediately. I think we have reached a stage of American politics where dissent is being brutally suppressed by the current administration and we are a LONG way along in the process of losing our freedoms.
I know this sounds hopeless. To some extent, I agree.
What can we do?
This post is doing maybe the only one thing I think is possible: warning those who will listen. Not to hope for changing the outcome, but to begin mentally preparing for a massive and looming change that will be very uncomfortable and probably unavoidable for most of us.
In particular I want to emphasize that, contrary to the promises that this will “make America great again,” and restore the wealth and freedom and prosperity for true Americans, in reality (just like EVERY other time a nation has gone down this path), everyone loses massively – except for the few at the top. So please don’t assume that if you’re a white middle class patriotic American you will end up just fine. History shows that is a false assumption. Everyone suffers when the entire order of society falls apart.
No, all we can do is to strengthen our small units of community so we have neighbors on whom we can depend. Build relationships with your immediate neighbors. Get involved in your church small group, and get to know their individual needs and abilities. You will likely need each other. And don’t restrict that to people like you: immigrants and the poor among us will be hardest hit, and we have many direct commands from scripture, from Jesus himself in many cases, to care for them – and those verses were written in a society which was deeply oppressed and exploited by a despotic regime.
I’m not the only person saying all this – not by a long shot. Quite a few people I have learned to respect and trust are making the same warnings.
And I’ve been saying some version of this warning since mid 2024 as I started to see how Trump and Vance were campaigning. I just haven’t been quite to bold to state it so clearly in this context to those I know personally.
And most of what has happened and is happening was clearly proposed in Project 2025, which I tried to warn everyone about, but was told I was simply being alarmist. No, this was all very clearly stated, and continues to be clearly stated by a lot of pro-administration folks.
I truly do hope I’m wrong. I love the thing that America used to be, the freedoms for which it stood, and although I recognize now that too many citizens and immigrants suffered due to injustice, it used to see to me that we were slowly making progress towards justice and equality. But I see that as abruptly stopped and reversed now. And that deeply saddens me.
And even if I’m right about what will happen, I hope that I’m underestimating how many people will wake up, rise up, and say “Hell no, not on my watch” and undo some of the harm quickly. But even if they do, there will be a lot of conflict and death as the national turmoil plays out.
So I hope that in about 10-12 months you can tell me I was wrong about it all.
But what if I am right? I ask you to spend at least a bit of time thinking about the possibility, and looking outside your normal media sources, and see if you find evidence that I may be speaking the truth.
I’d rather let you know what I see on the horizon, and be wrong, than be right but have failed to warn you.
Thanks for reading this. Feel free to reach out if you want to challenge me or discuss this further. I’ll have a conversation with anyone, as long as it’s honest and open and respectful.
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